💹 Economy & Policy
• US and China near a sweeping trade deal, agreeing to pause tariffs, resume key commodity trade, and delay rare earth export restrictions — easing global trade tensions.
• India–US trade pact inches closer, with language being finalized for tariff reduction and market access; announcement expected this week.
• IMF projects global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, citing fading tariff front-loading and continued policy uncertainty.
• Since 1990, Indian equities have delivered a 13.6% CAGR, underscoring long-term market resilience and steady earnings expansion.
📈 Equity Markets
• Indian markets set for a strong gap-up start, with GIFT Nifty trading 128 points higher at 25,923, backed by strong global cues and trade deal optimism.
• Nifty closed Friday at 25,795 (-0.37%), snapping a six-day winning streak amid profit-booking near 26,000; strong support seen at 25,700–25,500, resistance at 25,900–26,000.
• Technical indicators show mixed signals — RSI at 67.9 (overbought), Stochastic at 79.6, MACD still in buy mode; trend remains positive above 25,700 support.
• Asian markets surged on US–China trade optimism —
- Nikkei +2.0% (breaching 50,000 mark for first time)
- Kospi +1.83% (record high)
- Hang Seng +2.58%
• US markets positioned higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.9%, ahead of the Fed policy meeting (Oct 28–29) where a 25 bps rate cut is widely expected.
🏦 Companies & Sectors
• Auto sector sentiment remains upbeat, supported by strong quarterly numbers and global trade deal optimism.
• Export-oriented sectors like metals, chemicals, and textiles may see renewed interest if tariff easing materializes in the upcoming trade agreements.
🌏 Global & Commodities
• Oil prices rose — WTI at $61.78/barrel, Brent at $66.46 — on trade optimism and ongoing U.S. sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
• Gold prices stabilized after last week’s steep drop, as investors await clarity from the Fed’s policy decision this week.
• Global sentiment remains risk-on, fueled by easing trade tensions, rate cut expectations, and improving corporate earnings momentum.