_Markets open today — RBI MPC week in focus (Jun 3–5, outcome Jun 5)_
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📊 *ECONOMY & POLICY*
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🏦 *RBI MPC Begins — Rate Hold Expected, Commentary Key*
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee convenes June 3–5 with a decision on June 5; SBI Research expects rates held despite rising inflation from crude, rupee depreciation, and fuel hikes.
All eyes will be on the RBI’s growth-inflation guidance for FY27 — the commentary, not the rate call, is the real market-mover this week.
📎 _Read: BusinessToday_
📉 *GST Collections Slow Sharply to 3.2% Growth in May*
May 2026 GST came in at ₹1.94 lakh crore, up just 3.2% YoY — a steep deceleration from May 2025’s 16.4% growth, with import-side collections doing the heavy lifting rather than domestic demand.
The slowdown adds to macro caution heading into the MPC meeting and raises questions about consumption durability under the fuel price shock.
📎 _Read: Economic Times / NewsX_
📉 *OMCs Still Bleeding — More Fuel Hikes Likely*
Despite three retail price increases totalling ~₹5/litre in May, state-run oil companies continue to record significant under-recoveries at Brent near $95.
Experts warn further hikes are unavoidable to prevent lasting balance-sheet damage at BPCL, HPCL, and IOC — each additional ₹1/litre hike adds ~0.1 pp to CPI.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
⚡ *Commercial LPG Up ₹42 From June 1 — Hospitality Sector Hit*
OMCs raised commercial LPG (19 kg) to ₹3,113.50 in Delhi from June 1 — the second hike since May, following a near-₹1,000 jump on May 1 driven by Middle East supply disruptions.
Domestic 14.2 kg cylinders remain unchanged, shielding households, but restaurants and caterers face compounding margin pressure as enforcement raids ramp up against diversion.
📎 _Read: BusinessToday_
📈 *Manufacturing PMI Hits 3-Month High of 55.0 in May*
HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.0 in May (vs 54.7 in April), beating the flash estimate of 54.3, driven by resilient new orders and output expansion.
The lone bright spot in today’s macro picture — but cost pressures hit a 45-month high, meaning input inflation is building across the production chain just as the RBI weighs its next move.
📎 _Read: The Hindu BusinessLine / Business Standard_
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🌍 *GLOBAL & WORLD*
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🔥 *Brent Below $95 — US-Iran Talks Stall, Hormuz Still Uncertain*
Brent crude settled just below $95/barrel with conflicting signals from US-Iran ceasefire talks; Trump says a Hormuz agreement is expected within a week but has not signed an MOU.
For India, which imports ~85% of its crude, sustained Brent at these levels means ~₹6,800 crore of additional annualised import burden per dollar — keeping OMC losses, the rupee, and the fiscal deficit all under pressure simultaneously.
📎 _Read: NDTV Profit_
💻 *Alphabet Raises $80 Billion in Equity for AI Spending*
Google’s parent Alphabet is raising $80 billion in equity — rare for a mega-cap — to fund AI infrastructure, signalling the AI capex supercycle remains firmly in play.
Relevant for India: BofA’s Candace Browning has specifically flagged that peaking global AI capex could be a re-rating trigger for Indian equities as tech investment flows rotate toward emerging markets.
📎 _Read: NDTV Profit_
https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/alphabet-to-raise-80-billion-in-equity-for-ai-spending-11578205
📈 *Dell Beats on AI Server Demand, Raises Full-Year Outlook*
Dell delivered a strong quarter on surging demand for Nvidia-powered AI servers, raising its full-year guidance and reinforcing the data-centre build-out cycle.
Directly positive read-through for Indian IT majors — Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro — with large enterprise AI transformation mandates in their order books.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets
📉 *South Korea Overtakes India as World’s 6th-Largest Stock Market*
South Korea reclaimed the 6th spot in global market cap rankings, ahead of India, driven by the AI-led surge in Samsung and SK Hynix.
The shift reflects persistent FII outflows and India’s crude-linked macro headwinds eroding relative standing — though analysts see meaningful re-entry upside once the West Asia situation stabilises.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
💡 *BofA: India Revival Needs AI Capex Peak + West Asia Resolution*
BofA Global Research head Candace Browning sees Indian equities lagging EM peers near-term on FII selling and stretched valuations, but identifies two catalysts for a sharp reversal: global AI capex peaking and a West Asia conflict resolution easing crude prices.
BofA’s year-end Nifty target is 26,200 — implying ~11% upside from current levels near 23,548.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
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_Compiled by Daily Business Briefs · 02 Jun 2026_