_Markets open today — RBI MPC meets June 3–5, rate decision June 6_
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📊 *ECONOMY & POLICY*
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🤝 *India–US Trade Talks Begin Today in New Delhi*
Chief negotiators Brendan Lynch (US) and Darpan Jain (India) begin four-day talks to finalise the interim trade pact whose framework was agreed in February, covering market access, customs, investment and economic security.
A signed deal could sharply compress India’s remaining export tariffs to the US and unlock a fresh wave of FII inflows into Indian equities and bonds.
📎 _Read: Business Standard_
🏦 *RBI MPC Likely to Hold Repo Rate at 5.25% This Week*
A Business Standard poll of economists expects the six-member MPC to keep the repo rate unchanged when it meets June 3–5, with the rate decision due Friday June 6, as the West Asia conflict poses upside inflation risk.
Most respondents still see at least one rate hike in FY27, signalling the easing cycle has peaked — watch for hawkish language on Friday that could reprice bank NIMs and bond yields.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
🤝 *India–Oman CEPA Duty Concessions Live from Today*
Finance Ministry notifications kick in from June 1, offering duty cuts on 77.8% of tariff lines covering ~95% of India’s imports from Oman, under the CEPA signed in December 2025.
Positive for petrochemical, marble and date importers; adds to India’s expanding FTA network progressively reducing input costs across manufacturing sectors.
📎 _Read: Business Standard_
🏦 *Govt Waives Cotton Import Duty Till October 31*
The 11% customs duty on cotton imports has been fully exempted from June 1 to October 31, 2026, to ease raw material costs for domestic textile manufacturers grappling with elevated domestic cotton prices.
Textile spinners and exporters — Vardhman Textiles, Welspun, KPR Mill — stand to benefit from improved cost competitiveness; watch for margin upgrades in the sector.
📎 _Read: Business Standard_
💡 *RBI Annual Report: India GDP at 6.9% for FY27, West Asia the Key Risk*
The RBI’s Annual Report projects India’s real GDP growth at 6.9% for FY27, backed by strong corporate and banking balance sheets and government capex, but flags that global inflation has risen to a projected 4.4% in 2026 — up from an earlier 3.8% estimate.
The report tilts the near-term playbook toward domestic-facing sectors — infrastructure, consumption, and capex — over export-linked businesses vulnerable to global demand softness.
📎 _Read: Outlook Business_
🏦 *Banks Lobby RBI to Revive FCNR Scheme to Draw NRI Dollar Deposits*
Indian banks have petitioned the RBI to ease a guarantee restriction that would allow revival of a special FCNR deposit scheme, aimed at channelling NRI remittances into the banking system at a time of rupee depreciation pressure.
Approval would meaningfully improve banking system forex liquidity and support the rupee — primary beneficiaries would be SBI, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
📈 *Corporate India Q4 FY26 Profit Up 25% — But Operating Margins Squeezed*
Aggregate Q4 FY26 net profit for corporate India rose 25.3%, but the headline number was inflated by non-operating gains; actual operating margins were compressed by rising input costs across sectors.
Metals, energy and infrastructure are best positioned for FY27 — investors should look beyond PAT headlines and focus on EBITDA margin direction in results commentary this season.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
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🏢 *COMPANIES*
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📉 *West Asia Conflict to Stress Indian Banks’ Books from Q2 FY27*
Indian banks are bracing for rising NPA risk from Q2 FY27, as elevated fuel prices squeeze consumer spending and SME profit margins — lenders are already tightening SME credit standards, per ET reporting.
High-SME-exposure lenders are the most vulnerable; investors should scrutinise credit cost guidance closely in Q1 FY27 management commentary.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
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🌍 *GLOBAL & WORLD*
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📈 *Mumbai Property Registers 14-Year High in May — 12,315 Deals*
Mumbai recorded 12,315 property registrations in May 2026, the highest for the month since 2012, signalling resilient homebuyer demand despite the macro uncertainty.
Bullish read-through for Mumbai-focused listed developers — Macrotech (Lodha), Oberoi Realty, and Godrej Properties are the primary beneficiaries to watch.
📎 _Read: NDTV Profit_
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